Mentha (Mentha arvensis) is an important crop cultivated in India. Uttar Pradesh is the leading producer state in the country. The present study has been carried out in order to access the export potential of Indian Mentha oil. The export potential and performance of Mentha oil was examined. Apart from this total export, export growth rate and stability or instability of trade for India was also examined. Growth rate analysis and Markov chain analysis were the analytical tools used to assess growth and transition probabilities matrix for the major Mentha oil markets. Data were collected from various published sources from the year 2010-11 to 2019-2020 to calculate the compound growth rate and export potential of Mentha oil. The result of the study revealed that U.S.A. is the most stable importer of Indian Mentha oil because it retain 79 per cnt share in last ten years among all the countries. France reported as second most stable importer of India’s Mentha oil had 0.49 transition probability. Japan, Brazil, Netherland, Spain reported zero transition probability, indicating instability in India’s exports to these countries.

Highlights

• Indian has emerged as a larger exporter of its oil and menthol to world market.
• Indian Mentha oil has competitive advantages among the countries.
• USA is the most stable importer of Indian Mentha oil.